Prices for toys and baby care products: The profit is made outside of the Christmas season
Managing toy pricing involves setting a price for each product that is appropriate for the time of year, the product’s lifecycle, and what customers are comparing it to. Specialists generate 64% of their sales from January through October: it’s outside of the Christmas season that profit margins are determined, when prices aren’t simply imposed.
A new brand stands out early on, a classic holds its ground, and a birthday gift is chosen based more on price range than on a discount. Baby products are priced like equipment, based on trust and product line consistency, and post-holiday unsold inventory—which cannot be destroyed—is sorted by individual item.
Licenses, new arrivals, birthday gifts, strollers, January clearance items: the toy and baby products section is bustling all year round, not just in December.
This article is intended for sales, purchasing, pricing, and e-commerce departments at specialty stores, big-box retailers, and websites selling toys and baby products.
It explains why toy prices are determined over a ten-month period, and why the baby care industry requires a completely different approach.
Toy Prices: What Are We Talking About?
Managing toy pricing involves setting a price for each game, toy, or baby care item that is appropriate for the time of year, the product's lifecycle, and what customers are actually comparing.
The toy industry has a reputation for being a one-season business. Everything hinges on December; the rest of the year is just a wait until Christmas.
Our professional opinion:Treating toys as a one-time seasonal product results in lost profit margins for the other ten months. And baby products are priced as equipment, not as toys.
Our retail sector pricing guide classifies toys as a seasonal sector. This is true in terms of volume, but the margin is generated at other times of the year.
Toys Outside of Christmas: Where Profit Margins Are Built
The INSEE figures contradict the notion that sales last only a few weeks. We have recalculated the monthly sales pattern for specialty stores over three full years.
This represents the share of annual sales for specialty toy and game stores generated from January through October, on average from 2023 to 2025. November and December account for only 36% of this total.
(Booper calculation based on the INSEE retail sales index for games and toys (series 010770768), October 2026)
August is thus more significant than any other month in the first half of the year, accounting for nearly 8% of annual sales. October, with Halloween and the first gift purchases, accounts for nearly 9%.
And this foundation is growing. In the first seven months of 2026, the revenue index for toy retailers was nearly 14% higher than in the first seven months of 2025.
We'll cover December's highlight separately, in our article on Black Friday deals for toys and baby products. Here, we'll focus on the remaining two-thirds.
Prices that fall at the end of the year and rise again in the spring
Prices also follow a cycle. According to INSEE, the price index for games and toys (excluding video games) fell by 4.9% between August and December 2024, then rose by 5.8% through May 2025.
Our take:In December, pricing is a matter of endurance, as we compete against general practitioners and online sites. The rest of the year, it’s a matter of strategy. That’s when you can gain a margin point without losing customers.
Practice those Christmas habits—alignment and a wide stance—all year round; this point will come naturally without anyone having to force it.
Licenses and New Products: Setting the Price of a Toy with No Sales History
Every year, part of the department is refreshed with new items from manufacturers and products based on movies or TV shows. These toys have no sales history at the store.
Demand for these products depends on an external event—such as a theatrical release or the start of a new season—that no one can control. Effective methods for forecasting this type of product are discussed in our article on the sales history needed to make accurate forecasts.
The introductory price sets the tone for what's to come
The initial price is not just a promotional price. It becomes the basis for any future discount announcements, in accordance with the 30-day reference price rule.
An overly aggressive launch promotion therefore sets a low benchmark. It deprives the retailer of a genuine discount when it needs one most—often when sales begin to decline.
When a franchise loses steam, pricing must stay ahead of the curve
A license follows the ebb and flow of its content: it’s strong when it’s first released, then declines as attention shifts elsewhere. The toy retains its value as long as the child is familiar with the character.
Our position:A licensed title stands out early on and gradually, while a classic holds its own. Treating both the same way amounts to undervaluing the classic or holding onto the out-of-style licensed title for too long.
Easter, birthdays, back-to-school season: the key toy sales periods outside of Christmas
The off-Christmas season is not a uniform lull: its peak periods do not attract the same customers or have the same drivers of demand.
Easter falls on a variable date, which varies from one school district to another. Outdoor activities and games depend on the weather. The start of the school year combines creative activities with educational games.
These factors can be modeled, as shown in our article on howto incorporate exogenous events into a sales forecast. However, they still need to be linked to price.
Birthdays: Gift-Buying That Comes Down to a Threshold
Birthdays are the most regular highlight in the toy industry: they happen every week, in every store. The shopper, often a guest, arrives with a budget in mind.
This budget is broken down into psychological price points: under €20, under €30. A toy priced just above the threshold loses the sale; a toy priced well below the threshold leaves room for profit.
Our belief:When it comes to birthday gifts, the right price point pays off more than a discount. A promotion simply brings forward a purchase that was already planned; it rarely creates a new one.
Linking each peak period to its corresponding demand— product by product —is the goal of our AI-powered sales forecasting: it simulates the effect of a price on sales, margin, and inventory before setting it.
The Cost of Baby Care: Equipment, Not Toys
Strollers, car seats, cribs, high chairs: baby products are often found on the same shelves as toys. Yet they don’t follow any of the same rules.
Purchases are rare, well-thought-out, and often planned weeks before the baby is born. Parents compare models, reviews, features, and safety—much more than just a few euros' difference in price.
babies were born in France in 2025, a 24% decrease from 2010: each item of baby gear sold carries greater weight in a baby care aisle that year.
(INSEE, INSEE Première No. 2087 “Demographic Report 2025,” January 2026)
Fewer births mean fewer first-time purchases each year. It's very tempting to maintain sales volume through discounts.
A parent spends a long time comparing options and evaluating the product line
Our position:In the baby products market, a steep discount is more cause for concern than reassurance. A stroller suddenly being sold at a deep discount raises doubts about the product—or about the price paid by those who bought it the previous month.
What parents consider is the clarity of the product lineup. A consistent product lineup means that a high-end model should remain more expensive than the standard model, even after a one-time price reduction.
A renewal of product lines driven by regulations
The car seat also illustrates that a product’s lifecycle is sometimes determined outside the store. According to Road Safety, car seats certified under the old R44 standard could no longer be sold after September 1, 2024.
When a launch date is known months in advance, pricing strategy is key: gradually clear out the old model without undermining the price of the new one. Waiting until the last week means having to rush into a clearance sale.
Unsold Toys After the Holidays: Selling Them Without Wasting Them
Any merchandise still on the shelves on December 26 has already lost some of its value. The challenge is to recover as much of that value as possible, as quickly as possible.
The AGEC Act has closed off the most drastic option: destroying unsold, new non-food items is prohibited. They must be sold, donated, reused, or recycled.
Unsold toys therefore remain on the balance sheet until they are disposed of. Every month of tied-up inventory costs money, and every late discount costs more than the same discount given on time.
Not all assets lose their value at the same rate
A classic board game is resold the following year at the same price. A license that’s gone out of style or a Christmas decoration? No. A uniform price reduction sells off the former at a discount and keeps the latter on the shelves for too long.
Our belief:Post-holiday markdowns should be determined on a product-by-product basis, depending on how quickly the items lose value. The principles regarding timing and the extent of markdowns apply fully to toys.
Identifying items that will no longer sell early on helps prevent this from happening. Our article on discontinued lines and dormant inventory explains how to spot them before they pile up.
Managing Toy Prices Year-Round
New arrivals and licensed products, non-Christmas sales highlights, baby care products, and unsold inventory: four scenarios, four pricing strategies. The table below summarizes them.
| Location | What Influences the Purchase | Pricing Logic | Primary Margin Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Licenses and New Releases | A movie, a TV series, the novelty effect | Introductory price maintained, early discount | Basal rate set too early |
| Highlights (excluding Christmas) | Easter, birthdays, back-to-school, weather | Price thresholds rather than discounts | A discount that encourages a planned purchase |
| Child Care | Safety, Feedback, Parental Trust | Stable prices, clear product lineup | A steep discount that sows doubt |
| Unsold After the Holidays | A value that decreases each week | Price Adjustment by SKU | A classic sold off at a bargain price; the license was held onto for too long |
None of these approaches holds up when using a single coefficient or last year's data. They require a forecast by product and a simulation before each decision.
The clients we work with, across all industries, see their margins increase by 0.5 to 3 percentage points within a few months. Industry-specific challenges are outlined on our baby care and toys pricing page.
Would you like to control the price of your toys all year round, not just at Christmas?
Our experts work with you to analyze your licenses, best-selling items, and baby care product lines based on your sales history, and identify where you’re losing profit margins during the off-season.
Let's discuss your toy pricesSee also in this feature
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FAQ: Prices for Toys and Baby Products
Depending on the time of year, the product's lifecycle, and what the customer is actually comparing—rather than using a single coefficient.
A brand-new product with no track record, a license nearing the end of its term, a classic that’s re-released every year, and a birthday gift don’t all command the same price.
Outside of the Christmas season, pricing isn’t something you just have to put up with when competing against general retailers—it’s something you decide. That’s where you make your profit margin, provided you forecast demand product by product and simulate each decision before implementing it.
In stores specializing in games and toys, 64% of annual sales are generated from January through October.
This is Booper's calculation based on the INSEE revenue index for the sector, averaged from 2023 to 2025. November and December therefore account for 36% of the year.
August alone accounts for nearly 8% of sales, more than any other month in the first half of the year. The other ten months are not a slow period; they form the foundation of the department.
By maintaining the introductory price, then raising it gradually as soon as demand for the license begins to wane.
A license follows the same pattern as a movie or TV series: strong at launch, then declining. An overly aggressive launch promotion locks in a low reference price for the next 30 days and deprives the retailer of a real discount when it needs one.
A classic toy, on the other hand, stands on its own and can be reused.
Rarely on deep discount. During these peak periods, a reasonable price often pays off more than a sale.
Someone shopping for a birthday gift has a budget in mind—less than €20 or less than €30. A toy that costs just above that threshold loses the sale; a toy that costs well below it leaves room for profit.
A discount primarily encourages a purchase that was already planned. Easter, on the other hand, falls on a variable date, so demand must be based on the school vacation schedule.
Like a piece of equipment: a stable price, a clear product lineup, and moderate discounts.
Parents spend a lot of time comparing models, reviews, safety features, and services. A deep discount on a stroller or car seat makes them question the product—or the price they paid the previous month.
A high-end model must remain more expensive than the standard model, even after a price reduction. Changes in regulations—such as the end of sales of R44 seats in 2024—are factored into the price months in advance.
Sort them by item number, based on how quickly each one loses its value, and then give away or reuse whatever doesn't sell.
Since the AGEC law took effect, it has been illegal to destroy new, unsold non-food items. A classic video game can be resold the following year, but a license that has gone out of style or Christmas decorations cannot.
A uniform price reduction sells off the first item too quickly and keeps the second on the shelf for too long. Planning this price reduction before the season begins prevents you from having to deal with it in January.
Software that forecasts demand product by product —including new features and licenses—and simulates each price before setting it.
He must incorporate key sales events outside of the Christmas season, monitor prices of flagship products at specialty stores, general retailers, and online sites, ensure consistency across baby care product lines, and plan post-holiday markdowns.
It must also monitor the reference prices for discount offers. Booper's clients see margin increases ranging from +0.5 to +3 points within a few months, across all sectors.
Pricing for sporting goods involves setting, for each SKU, size, and store, the price that will clear out a seasonal collection before the next one arrives. The year’s profit margin is determined in the final weeks of each season, when a decision must be made between maintaining the margin and clearing out inventory.
Marking down an entire product line offers discounts on sizes that are still selling; the bike market is driven by model year, and the brand stands out from the major brands. The secondhand market and the end of the destruction of unsold inventory make this the right time to mark down prices.
The price of a high-tech product declines as it ages: held steady at launch, it drops in stages upon the announcement of its successor, then weighs on inventory that loses value each week. With operating margins in the 2% range, an unnecessary 1% drop wipes out half of the profit.
Constantly matching the lowest price is tantamount to letting your competitors set your prices. Profit margins are rebuilt through the product bundle, accessories, and services, and are maintained in the face of refurbished products, which cap the price of new products from the previous generation.
The price of auto parts is determined by a vast catalog, where the same part is available as an OEM part, an aftermarket part, or a compatible part, with part numbers that vary from one website to another. Without a reliable way to compare equivalents, any price discrepancy may be inaccurate.
The customer compares a short list of products—tires, batteries, oil, and wiper blades—which define the price image. The technical long tail is primarily about availability. Aligning it with the lowest price offers discounts that no one asked for.