Black Friday Deals on Toys and Baby Products: Don't sell off Christmas items too early
In the toy industry, Black Friday kicks off the Christmas shopping season, which accounts for more than a third of annual sales. With the 30-day rule, its price becomes the benchmark for nearly all December promotions.
The discount applies only to the toys being compared, not to licensed products or this year's new releases. Baby care—a thoughtful purchase driven by the timing of births—calls for moderate discounts.
A 20% discount on a top-selling toy on Black Friday. By mid-December, at the height of the holiday season, that same toy will no longer be available at that discounted price.
This article is intended for sales, purchasing, and pricing departments in the toy and baby products retail sector.
He explains why Black Friday sets the tone for the entire Christmas season, which products are worth buying at a discount, and how to start preparing for January as early as November.
When it comes to toys, Black Friday kicks off the season
In a toy store, the entire year hinges on just a few weeks. Black Friday isn't just another peak sales period—it kicks off the Christmas rush.
36% of the annual revenue of specialty toyand gamestores is generated in November and December. December alone accounts for 22%.
(Booper calculation based on the INSEE retail sales index for toys and games (series 010770768), 2023–2025 average)
The client arrives with a tight budget.
According to Fevad and Toluna, 70% of French people planned to take advantage of Black Friday 2025—six percentage points more than in 2024—and games and toys were the top category cited by those planning to buy their gifts online.
So there's a strong temptation to kick off the season with deep discounts.
Our belief:A Black Friday discount comes at a cost that lasts until Christmas. The general rules for this sales event are outlined in our article “Black Friday: Real Discounts, No Fake Strikethrough Prices.”
Black Friday prices are becoming the benchmark for December
A discount promotion must be based on the lowest price charged in the preceding 30 days. In 2026, Black Friday falls on Friday, November 27: its 30-day window covers almost all of December.
| Period (2026) | List Price | Discount that can be advertised |
|---|---|---|
| November 1–26 | €49.99 | Regular price |
| Black Friday, November 27–30 | €39.99 | -20%, off a list price of €49.99 |
| December 1–14 | €49.99 | Back to the regular price |
| Special offer on December 15 for €39.99 | €39.99 | None: The price is now €39.99 |
A toy sold on sale on November 27 can therefore no longer be advertised as discounted in mid-December at the same price. To advertise a discount, the price would have to be lowered even further—at the very time when demand is at its peak.
The mechanism is detailed in the 30-day reference price rule, and all the rules are outlined in our retail price compliance guide.
Choosing Toys That Deserve a Discount
Black Friday discounts make sense for products that customers compare—products that are well-known and sold everywhere. That's where the season's price perception takes shape.
New releases and this year's new products have no sales history, and often face little direct competition in November. Discounting them as early as Black Friday means giving up profit margins on products that will sell anyway in December.
This sorting process requires forecasting demand product by product, including new products. See AI-driven sales forecasting and how to incorporate key events into a forecast.
31% of French people use price comparison sites to research products before making their end-of-year purchases, and 75% prioritize budget awareness.
(Fevad and Toluna, Christmas 2025 purchase intentions)
With customers comparing products, market intelligence should focus on flagship products rather than the entire catalog. Identify which competitors’ products to monitor.
Childcare doesn't follow the Christmas schedule
Baby care follows different rules. Purchases are well-thought-out, driven by births rather than holidays, and the price must first and foremost inspire confidence in parents.
A very deep discount on a car seat or stroller can raise doubts about the product's quality—or about the price charged the rest of the year. It's better to offer moderate discounts that are consistent with the usual pricing policy.
Consistency across channels is all the more important given that parents spend a lot of time comparing prices before making a purchase. See the price differences across channels.
Start Preparing for January in November
Any items not sold by Christmas must be cleared out during the winter sales, without affecting the prices of future collections. Black Friday sales volumes have a direct impact on this inventory.
Planning for markdowns as early as the start of the season helps avoid having to deal with them in January. Review the schedule and extent of the markdowns, as well as the end dates for each collection and dormant inventory.
The challenges facing the industry are outlined on our baby care and toys page. The same key trend is playing out differently in the home appliance and high-tech sectors.
Would you like to time your Black Friday event to coincide with your holiday season?
Our experts will help you choose which toys to put on clearance, simulate your prices, and lock in your reference prices through January.
Let's talk about your holiday seasonSee also in this feature
- Pricing in the Retail Sector: What's Changing (and What Isn't)
- B2B Pricing: Why List Prices Are No Longer Enough When Dealing with Segments
- Pricing of sporting goods: a margin determined at the end of the season
- FMCG Pricing: Managing Your Margin When You Have No Control Over the Shelf Price
FAQ: Black Friday Deals on Toys and Baby Products
Not across the entire catalog. Black Friday kicks off the holiday season, and every discount affects profit margins and December's list prices.
Discounts focus on well-known and comparable toys, which set the price benchmark for the season.
Licensed titles and this year's new releases, which face little competition in November, will sell in December anyway: discounting them too early means giving up profit margin.
It becomes the benchmark price for any promotion announced within the next 30 days.
In 2026, Black Friday falls on November 27. A toy sold for €39.99 on that day—and then raised to €49.99—cannot be marked down if its price is lowered back to €39.99 on December 15: its reference price has become €39.99.
To announce a price cut, the price would have to go even lower.
In stores specializing in games and toys, November and December account for about 36% of annual sales, and December alone accounts for about 22%.
This is Booper's calculation based on the INSEE revenue index for the sector, averaged from 2023 to 2025. The curve varies very little from year to year: an average week in December accounts for more than two and a half times as much as a typical week.
Generally speaking, no. They don't have a sales history, and there's often little direct competition in November.
Demand for these products is projected product by product based on indicators such as pre-orders and initial sales in October. Offering discounts as early as Black Friday reduces their profit margin without any guaranteed increase in sales volume, and sets a low reference price for December.
No. Baby products are a thoughtful purchase, driven by births rather than Christmas, and the price must first and foremost inspire confidence.
A very deep discount on a car seat or stroller might make you question the quality of the product or the price charged the rest of the year.
Moderate discounts, consistent with standard pricing policies and across all channels, better protect the relationship with parents.
By setting Black Friday quantities and discounts based on expected post-Christmas inventory.
Items that aren't sold in December must be cleared out during the winter sales without undermining the prices of subsequent collections. Planning markdowns as early as the season's planning phase—with several sales scenarios in mind—helps avoid having to deal with them in January.
Yes, by forecasting sales product by product, simulating prices before finalizing them, and calculating reference prices for the entire season.
The tool shows how a Black Friday discount affects potential promotions in December, focuses monitoring efforts on top-selling toys, and prepares for the January clearance sale.
Irreversible decisions are thus made based on statistics, before the start of the season.
In the high-tech sector, Black Friday accounts for a major portion of annual sales and takes place two months after the back-to-school product launches. It is intended to clear out the previous generation of products rather than to sell off the new ones at a discount.
Refurbished products set a ceiling on the price of new items, and some prices are rising due to the cost of components. The advertised discount is always calculated based on the lowest price over the past 30 days.
When it comes to home appliances, Black Friday success depends more on the selection of models than on the size of the discounts. An 8% price reduction may require a 50% increase in sales to maintain the same profit margin.
It's best to act quickly on the models that are actually being compared, maintain the prices of exclusive models, focus on delivery, installation, and trade-ins, and prepare the 30-day policy starting in October.
Reviewing a sale ad involves verifying, prior to publication, its list price, compliance with the no-loss resale threshold, and promotional caps. At the network level, this review can no longer be done manually.
A pricing tool shifts control to the moment the price is set: price history organized by channel, calculated price ranges for each product, and a record of every decision. However, it must natively incorporate French regulations.